Final Program

Risk Based Decision Making in Water Resources IX

Radisson Santa Barbara Hotel
1111 East Cabrillo Boulevard -- Santa Barbara, California 93103
Tel: 1-805-963-0744 -- Fax: 1-805-962-0985
October 15 - 20, 2000

Conference Chair:
Yacov Haimes University of Virginia
Conference Co-Chair:
David A. Moser U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Conference Liasion:
Paul A. Parisi, PE, F.ASCE

Local Coordinator:
Antoinette Chartier

United Engineering Foundation, Inc.
Three Park Avenue, 27th Floor
New York, NY 10016-5902
(T) 1-212-591-7836 --- (F) 1-212-591-7441 ---

Sunday, October 15, 2000

16:00 - 18:00 Conference Registration

18:00 - 19:00 Social Hour

19:00 - 20:30 Dinner and Opening Remarks Systems Engineering

Monday, October 16, 2000

07:00 - 08:00 Breakfast Buffet

08:00 - 08:15 Welcome Remarks from UEF by Paul A. Parisi, PE, F. ASCE

08:15 - 08:30 Welcome Remarks by Yacov Y. Haimes and David Moser

08:30 - 12:00 SESSION 1 - Plenary Session
Chair: Yacov Y. Haimes, University of Virginia

Irv Pikus, Former Commissioner, President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection (PCCIP)
Assessing and Managing Risk in Critical Infrastructures

Stan Kaplan, David Moser, Institute for Water Resources, IWR
Lyn Padgett, Joint Warfare Analysis Center (JWAK-USDOD)
Eugene Stakhiv, Institute for Water Resources, IWR
Review of risk and uncertainty and the past 20 years and a differentiation between the way risk and uncertainty is practiced in the Engineering profession and the other professions.

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break

10:30 - 12:00 Plenary Session, Continued

12:15 - 13:30 Lunch

14:00 - 18:00 Ad hoc sessions and/or free time

18:00 - 19:30 Dinner

19:30 - 21:30 SESSION 2 - Risk Acceptance /Risk Tolerance
Chair: David Moser, IWR, Institute for Water Resources

David Bowles, Utah State University
Risk Tolerance in Dam Safety Decisions

Jeffrey Danneels, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
Methodology for Improving the Security of Federal Dams

Bruce Muller, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation
Guidelines for Achieving Public Protection in Dam Safety: A Retrospective Economic Dimensions of Risk Analysis

The notion of risk acceptance or tolerance, which has been a significant thread throughout the application of risk-based decision making is the focus of this session.

21:30 - 22:30 Social Hour

Tuesday, October 17, 2000

07:00 - 08:15 Breakfast Buffet

08:30 - 12:00 SESSION 3 - Hydrologic Risk Analysis
Chair: Ming Tseng, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Greg Baecher, University of Maryland, Chairman of NRC panel

Darryl Davis, Director, HEC, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,

Papers and discussions will be held on important conceptual and methodological innovations in the practice of hydrologic risk analysis vs the recommendations of the National Research Council

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break

12:15 - 13:30 Lunch

13:30 - 18:00 Ad hoc sessions and/or free time

18:00 - 19:30 Dinner

19:30 - 21:30 SESSION 4 - Flood Frequency and Climate Non-Stationarity
Chair: S.K. Nanda, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers -

Ms. Jo Camrud, Geophysics, Paleohydrology, and Seismotectonics Group Technical Service Center
Istvan Bogardi, University of Nebraska
Modeling Of Hydrological Extremes
(Authors: I. Bogardi, L. Duckstein, R. Pongracz and A. Galambosi)

J.R. Olsen, Institute for Water Resources
Analysis of Trends and Persistence in the Hydrologic Record

J. Stedinger, Cornell University
Methods for Estimating Flood Risks Under Climate Variability and Uncertainty

Issues dealing with the theoretical and practical approaches to representing the uncertainties associated with long-term trends, persistence and climate non-stationarity, within the context of project planning and design.

Wednesday, October 18, 2000

07:00 - 08:15 Breakfast

08:30 - 12:00 SESSION 5 - Infrastructure Survivability and Complexity
Chair: Yacov Y. Haimes, University of Virginia

Bob O'Connor, Pennsylvania State University -
Richard Little, Director, NRC Board on Infrastructure and the Constructed Environment
Barry C. Ezell, Analyst, Operations Research Center of Excellence
Designing a Decision Support System for Base Camp Location and Layout

Bilal Ayyub, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland
Uncertainties in Expert Opinion Elicitation for Risk Studies

Critical Infrastructures in the United States and around the world are being threatened by natural and willful (man-made) hazards. This session will identify the research and development needs for addressing this emerging problem and the relevant available risk assessment and management methods and tools.

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break

12:15 - 13:30 Lunch

13:30 - 18:00 Ad hoc session and/or free time

18:00 - 19:30 Dinner

19:30 - 21:30 SESSION 6
Economic Dimensions of Risk Analysis

Chair: Ron Conner, HQ Corps of Engineers

David Moser, Institute for Water Resources
Risk Analysis with Uncertainty in Corps of Engineers Evaluations

Jim Schaub, United States Department of Agriculture -
Richard Williams, United States Food and Drug Administration
Risk Trade-offs in the Market

Charlie Yoe, University of Maryland, College of Veterinary Medicine
Improving Decisions with Cost Risk Assessment

Michael Hilliard Oak Ridge National Lab, Ohio River
Ohio River Navigation Investment Model

Weighing policy alternatives to accept, minimize, or reduce risks associated with water resource issues ultimately will include consideration of economic factors.

21:30 - 22:30 Social Hour

Thursday, October 19, 2000

07:00 - 08:15 Breakfast Buffet

08:30 - 12:00 SESSION 7 - Risk of Extreme and Rare Events
Chair: Jim Lambert, University of Virginia

Jim Lambert , Systems Engineering, University of Virginia
Risk Management of Compound Failure Modes for Lock Design

Margaret MacDonell and Loren Habegger, Argonne National Laboratory
Cumulative Risk Assessments: The Combined Impacts of Multiple Stressors

Robert Patev, USAE New England District
Reliability of Miter Gates Monoliths Subjected to Alkali- Aggregate Reaction
(Authors: Robert C. Patev, David M. Schaaf, and Randy M. James)

David Schaaf, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Economic Evaluation of Horizontally-Frame Miter Gate Reliability Analysis

Radwan Al-Weshah, UNESCO Cairo Office
Flood Risk Mitigation Using Watershed Management Tools:
Petra Area (Jordan)

Extreme and catastrophic events are often underestimated and commensurated in risk assessment with other more likely or less consequential events. The session will identify theory and methodology to address applications such as dam safety, earthquakes, droughts, floods, coastal storms, environmental impacts, business continuity assurance, drinking water and food safety, transportation, cost estimation and scheduling, and infrastructure systems engineering.

10:00 - 10:30 Coffee Break

12:15 - 13:30 Lunch

13:30 - 18:00 Ad hoc sessions and/or free time

18:00 - 19:30 Conference Closing Dinner

19:30 - 21:30 SESSION 8 - New Frontiers in Risk Analysis Theoretical/Methodological Theory
Chair, Gene Stakhiv, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Istvan Bogardi, University of Nebraska
The Fuzzy Set Frontier In Risk and Experience With Fuzzy Rule-Based Analysis
(Authors: I. Bogardi, L. Duckstein and A. Bardossy)

Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics
Distribution-Free Risk Analysis: Theory and Software Tools

Stuart D. Foltz , affiliation through U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, Champaign, Illinois
Condition Evaluation for Reliability Assessment of Existing Structures

William Rowe,
Information Value Approach to Uncertainty

This session will explore such new frontiers as chaos, Fuzzy set theory, Possibility theory, and complexity theory.

21:30 - 22:30 Social Hour

Friday, October 20, 2000

07:00 - 8:00 Breakfast Buffett

08:00 - 09:30 Summary of Questionnaire Statistics, Conclusion and Adjournment