Preliminary Program

Probabilistics in GeoTechnics:
Technical and Economic Risk Estimation

September 15 - 19, 2002
Hotel Weitzer
Graz, Austria

Conference Chairs:
Dr. Rudolf Pöttler
ILF Consulting Engineers, Austria
Prof. Herbert Klapperich
Freiberg University for Mining and Technology, Germany

Conference Co-Chairs:
Ms. Janette Keiser
Central Puget Sound Transit Authority, USA
Prof. Hiroyasu Ohtsu
Kyoto University, Japan

UNITED ENGINEERING FOUNDATION, INC.
Three Park Avenue, 27th Floor

New York, NY 10016-5902
T: 1-212-591-7836 - F: 1-212-591-7441 E: engfnd@aol.com - www.engfnd.org/2ar.html

SUNDAY, 15 September 2002

16:00 - 18:00 Registration

18:00 - 19:00 Welcome Reception

19:00 - 20:30 Vernissage
Art Exhibition - Mary Lou, "Risk-Visions and Dialog," Conference Center Gallery

20:30 - 22:00 Dinner

MONDAY, 16 September 2002

07:00 - 08:30 Breakfast

08:30 - 08:45 Opening Remarks
Rudolf Pöttler, Conference Chair
Herbert Klapperich, United Engineering Foundation
Hans Suenkel, Graz University of Technology, Austria

08:45 - 10:30 Session 1A: State of the Art
Session Chair: Helmut Schweiger
Session Co-chair: D. Vaughan Griffiths

Keynote Address PROBABILISTIC GEOTECHNICAL ANALYSIS: HOW DIFFICULT DOES IT NEED TO BE?
D. Vaughan Griffiths, Derena E. Tveten, Colorado School of Mines, USA
Gordon A. Fenton, Dalhousie University, Canada

UNCERTAINTY IN TUNNELLING
Anthony A. Van Tol, Simaan M. AbouRizk, University of Alberta, Canada
K. C. Er, Siri Fernando, City of Edmonton, Canada

MEANING AND UNCERTAINTY OF GEOTECHNICAL RISK ASSESSMENT - THE FUZZINESS OF FAILURE PROBABILITIES
Michael Oberguggenberger, Wolfgang Fellin, University of Innsbruck, Austria

PRACTICAL FIRST ORDER RELIABILITY COMPUTATIONS USING SPREADSHEET
B. K. Low, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
K. K. Phoon, National University of Singapore, Singapore

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30 Session 1B: State of the Art
Session Chair: D. Vaughan Griffiths
Session Co-chair: Helmut Schweiger

ASSESSMENT OF FRACTIAL BEHAVIOUR OF SOILS
Mark B. Jaksa, Adelaide University, Australia
Gordon A. Fenton, Dalhousie University, Canada

A NEW IDENTIFICATION METHOD FOR AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION OF GEOTECHNICAL DATA: THE EXTENDED BAYESIAN METHOD
Yusuke Honjo, Gifu University, Japan

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch

14:00 - 15:30 Session 1C: State of the Art
Session Chair: D. Vaughan Griffiths
Session Co-chair: Helmut F. Schweiger

ASSESSMENT OF THE LUCK ASSOCIATED WITH SETTLEMENT PREDICTION THAT ARE BASED ON ELASTIC THEORY
William S. Kaggwa, Mei T. Cheong, Mark B. Jaksa, Adelaide University, Australia

GIS APPLICATION FOR STABILITY ANALYSES OF GEOLOGICAL SPACE
Dana Sitanyiova, UTC Zilina, Slovak Republic

PROOF OF FOUNDATION STABILITY USING A CONSISTENT FAILURE MODEL
Kerstin Lesny, A. Kisse, W. Richwien, University of Essen, Germany

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO THE MODELING OF DEFORMABLE BLOCKY ROCK MASS
Jacek Jakubowski, University of Mining and Metallurgy, Poland

THE STUDY ON THE EVALUATION OF GEOTECHNICAL RISK BASED ON GEO-STATISTIC THEORY
Hiroyasu Ohtsu, Kyoto University, Japan

15:30 - 16:00 Coffee Break

16:00 - 17:30 Session 1D: State of the Art
Session Chair: Helmut F. Schweiger
Session Co-chair: D. Vaughan Griffiths

RELIABILITY DESIGN FOR ROCK MECHANIC PROBLEMS
Miroslav Marence, Verbundplan GmbH, Austria

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN GEOTECHNICS WITH DETERMINISTIC FINITE ELEMENTS - A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH FOR PRACTICAL APPLICATION IN TUNNELLING
G. M. Peschl, Graz University of Technology, Austria

NEW EFFECTIVE FOUNDATIONS WITH SOIL HARDENING AND IST DESIGNING
Nicolas Zotsenko, Poltava State Technical University, Ukraine

STATISTICAL SAMPLING SCHEMES FOR INTEGRITY TESTING OF PILED FOUNDATIONS
Gordon Cameron, Sam C. Wamziri, Ian G. N. Smith, Napier University, Edinburgh

DEVELOPMENT OF STRATEGIC MAINTENANCE SYSTEM OF THE ROCK STRUCTURE, WHICH APPLIED RISK MANAGEMENT
Toru Yasuda, Pacific Consultants Co. Ltd., Japan

BTC PIPELINE PROJECT, INVESTIGATION AT FAULT CROSSINGS
Markus Petschacher, Petschacher Consulting, Austria

GEOTECHNICAL ASPECTS FOR THE SUPPORT DESIGN IN THE TBM SECTIONS OF THE GOTTHARD BASE TUNNEL
Heinz Hagedorn, Amberg Consulting Engineers, Switzerland

17:30 - 19:00 Dinner

19:00 - 22:00 RISK ANALYSIS ON A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT - An Interactive Workshop
Janette Keiser, Central Puget Sound Transit Authority, USA

TUESDAY, 17 September 2002

07:00 - 08:30 Breakfast

08:30 - 10:30 Session 2A: Risk Management: Client and Contractor
Session Chair: Leopold Weber
Session Co-chair: Peter Schubert

Keynote Address RISK MANAGEMENT FROM THE CLIENTS SIDE OF VIEW
G. Vavrowsky, HL-AG Eisenbahn-Hochleistugnsstrecken, Austria
Rudolf Pöttler, ILF Consulting Engineers, Austria

RISK MANAGEMENT OF KARSTIC UNDERGROUND CONDITIONS
Stefan Eder, Marcus Plank, Bruno Mattle, Christian Haas, ILF Consulting Engineers, Austria

EVALUATION OF GEOTECHNICAL RISKS AS A PRECONDITION FOR SUCCESSFUL TBM PROJECT
Lars Babendererde, Babendererde Ingenieure GmbH, Germany

RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE MOUNT ST. HELEN'S LEVEE SYSTEM
Stephen J. Romero, Army Corps of Engineers, USA

ALARM THRESHOLDS AND THEIR USE IN DESIGN OF UNDERGROUND OPENINGS
Lars Olsson, Geostatistik AB, Sweden

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30 Session 2B: Risk Management: Client and Contractor
Session Chair: Leopold Weber
Session Co-chair: Peter Schubert

THE REAL AND PERCEIVED SIGNIFICANCE OF SERIOUS RISKS
Hans-Leo Paus, Gerling Consulting Gruppe, Germany

KEY ELEMENTS OF GEOTECHNICAL RISK MANAGEMENT AT SHALLOW TUNNELS
Peter Schubert, IC Consulenten ZT GesmbH, Austria

ALPINE LIFELINES - GEOTECHNICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF SUSTAINABLE GEOHAZARDS AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Bernhard Kohl, ILF Beratende Ingenieure ZT GmbH, Austria

RISK EVALUATION FOR AIR RAID SHELTERS FROM WORLD WAR II
Leopold Weber, Federal Ministry for Economy and Labour Mining Authority, Austria

12:30 - 13:30 Lunch

14:00 - 18:00 Conference Excursion

19:00 - 22:00 Visit to local vineyard
Dinner at vineyard

WEDNESDAY, 18 September 2002

07:00 - 08:30 Breakfast

08:30 - 10:30 Session 3: Earthquakes
Session Chair: Mustafa Erdik
Session Co-chair: Hiroyasu Ohtsu

Keynote Address
THE RISK EVALUATION OF ROCK SLOPES ADJACENT TO ROADS DUE TO EARTHQUAKE
Hiroyasu Ohtsu, Kyoto University, Japan

RAPID SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF BUILDINGS "EQ-FAST"
Holger Dümling, Gerling Consulting Gruppe, Germany

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR MAJOR OIL PIPELINES
Mustafa Erdik, Bogazici University, Turkey

EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING - AN AID FOR SAFETY AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Hansjörg Schmid, TIWAG-Tiroler Wasserkraftwerke AG, Austria

RISK ESTIMATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE INDUCED CHIFENGERSHAN LANDSLIDE IN TAIWAN
Keh-Jian Shou, Cheng-Fung Wang, Yin-Lian Chen, National Chung-Hsing University, Taiwan

A PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR SEISMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF BURIED PIPELINES
Volkan Yargici, K. Onder Cetin, M. Semih Yucemen, Middle East Technical University, Turkey

CONTROLS COST-EFFECTIVENESS AND JUSTIFICATION ON EARTHQUAKE-PROOF BUILDINGS
Roberto Matus, Guerrero University, Mexico

10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 - 12:30 Session 4: Landslides
Session Chair: Farrokh Nadim
Session Co-chair: Thomas Meschede

Keynote Address
PROBABILISTIC METHODS FOR GEOHAZARD PROBLEMS: STATE-OF-THE-ART
Farrokh Nadim, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Norway

RISK EVALUATION METHOD FOR ROCK BED AND SLOPE FAILURE OF ROADS
Yasufumi Iseki, Mamoru Tanaka, Public Works Research Institute, Japan

STOCHASTIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF SPATIALLY VARIABLE SUBSOIL
Paul Chiasson, University De Moncton, Canada
Yu-Jie Wang, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, China

RISK ANALYSIS OF LANDSLIDE OCCURRENCE ON THE BASIS OF PROBABILISTIC DESIGN
Sergey Matsiy, Konstantin Shadunts, Ekaterina Bezuglova, Kuban State Agrarian University, Russia
Andrey Fik, Directorate of gaz-line under construction "Russia-Turkey", Russia

RISK ANALYSIS FOR CLAYSTONE LANDSLIDE AREAS
Mark Squire, Squire Consulting Services, Inc., USA

MODELING UNCERTAINTY IN LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENTS
Marcus Pacheco, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

RISK ESTIMATION OF ROAD STRUCTURE ALONG RIVER LEVEE IN CASE OF EARTHQUAKE
Nobuhiko Hamada, Hanshin Expressway Public Corp., Japan

DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC ANALSYIS OF ROCK SLOPE DISPLACEMENTS UNDER EARTHQUAKE LOADING CONDITIONS
Kyu H. Cho, Terry R. West, Purdue University, USA

12:30 - 14:00 Lunch

14:00 - 16:30 Session 5: Waste Contamination and Landfill
Session Chair: Dietrich Mehroff
Session Co-chair: TBA

Keynote Address
RISK EVALUATION OF BROWNFIELDS - SAFETY CONCEPTS AND DEVELOPMENT
Dietrich Mehrhoff, AIG Consultants Holdings Limited, Germany

CUP - CLEAN UP POLICY - HOW CAN THE REMIDIATION OF CONTAMINATED SITES BE INSURED?
Thomas Meschede, Holger Dümling, Gerling Consulting Gruppe GmbH, Germany

REMAINING RISKS ON REMIDIATION SITES
Juergen Klein, DECHEMA, Germany

RISK ESTIMATION ASPECTS FOR RISK TRANSFER SOLUTIONS
Alex Pittignano, AIG Europe S.A., France

PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR THE EVALUATION OF GEOTECHNICAL PARAMETERS - REHABILITATION OF LARGE OPEN-PIT MINING SITES
Rafig Azzam, Walid Al-Hamdan, Herbert Klapperich, Freiberg University of Mining, Germany

GEOSYNTHETIC REINFORCED STRUCTURES FOR SLOPES AND LANDSLIDE REPAIRS: EVALUATION OF EXECUTION AND DESIGN CONCEPTS
Gernot Mannsbart, Polyfelt GmbH, Austria

16:30 - 17:00 Coffee Break

17:00 - 19:00 Ad hoc sessions/Free Time

19:00 - 20:00 Social Hour

20:00 - 23:00 Gala Dinner

THURSDAY, 19 September 2002

07:00 - 08:30 Breakfast

08:30 - 11:00 Session 6A: Contracts, Cost and Time
Session Chair: Gert Stadler
Session Co-chair: Janette Keiser

Keynote Address 1
COST, PRICE AND TIME IN GEOTECHNICAL CONSTRUCTION; PREDICTIONS BASED ON METHODS OF PROBABILISTICS
Gert Stadler, Klaus Jürgen Schick, Graz University of Technology, Austria

Keynote Address 2
INTERNATIONAL CONTRACT LAW - A COMPARISON OF RISK RELATED LEGAL PRINCIPLES USED AROUND THE WORLD
Janette Keiser, Central Puget Sound Transit Authority, USA

ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTICS IN ECONOMIC DIMENSIONING OF URBAN TUNNELLING PROJECTS
Stefan Heimer, I. Spohr, Heiner Klönne, Zerna, Kopper & Partner, Germany

GEOENVIRONMENTAL RISKS, FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND OWNERS
Katsuji Ishihara, Nikken Sekkei Civil Engineering, Ltd., Japan

QUANTIFICATION OF THE GEOTECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC RISK TUNNELLING
Andreas Goricki, Klaus Jürgen Schick, Graz University of Technology, Austria
Arnold Steidl, Gruppe Geotechnik Graz, ZT GmbH, Austria

RISK EVALUATION OF BUILDING PROCESS BY USING THE ROAD MODEL
Doris Link, Strabag AG, Austria

11:00 - 11:30 Coffee Break

11:30 - 12:30 Session 6B: Contracts, Cost and Time
Session Chair: Gert Stadler
Session Co-chair: Janette Keiser

THE WAYS OF THE MUNICIPAL INVESTMENT FINANCING IN KRAKOW: THE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES FOR THE PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS
Slawomir Podgorski, Agencja Rozwoju Miasta S.A., Poland

DEALING WITH GEOLOGICAL RISK IN BOT-CONTACTS: PROPOSAL FOR A SUPPLEMENTARY MODUL TO BOT-CONTRACTS UNDER INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVE BIDDING (ICB)
Markus Spiegl, SSP BauConsult GmbH, Austria
Eckart Schneider, Leopold-Franzens-University Innsbruck, Austria

USING A RISQUE METHOD TO PLACE A DOLLAR VALUE ON ENGINEERING RISK
Adrian R. Bowden, Uwe Dannwolf, URS Deutschland GmbH, Germany, Australia

RISK MANAGEMENT IN GEOTECHNICS - A CONTRACTORS VIEW
Manfred Nußbaumer, Ulrich Klotz, Ed. Züblin AG, Germany

RISK-STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION AND RISK MINIMIZATION BY MAKING DECISIONS IN PLANNING AND PLACING PROCESS: SPECIFYING, HEDGING, INTEGRATION, INSURANCE
Heiko Meinen, Universität Dortmund, Germany

RISK MANAGEMENT - AN ENGINEERING PRACTICE
Alois Vigl, Vigl Consult, Austria
Johannes Benedikt, ILF Consulting Engineers, Austria

12:30 - 12:45 Conference Close

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