PRELIMINARY PROGRAM

RISK BASED DECISION MAKING
IN WATER RESOURCES VIII

October 12-17, 1997
Radisson Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara, California

Chair:
Yacov Haimes
University of Virginia

Co-Chair:
David Moser
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Engineering Foundation Conferences
345 East 47th Street, Suite 303
New York, N.Y. 10017
T: 1-212-705-7837 - F:1-212-705-7441
E: engfnd@aol.com - WWW: http://www.engfnd.org

Sunday, October 12, 1997

3:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Registration

7:00 p.m. - 8:30 p.m. Dinner

8:30 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. Social Hour

Monday, October 13, 1997

7:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. Breakfast Buffet

8:30 a.m. - 12:00 noon SESSION I: PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES
Plenary Session Chair: Yacov Y. Haimes

Irv Pikus
Commissioner - Presidential's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection

William Harris
Commissioner - Presidential's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection

Eugene Stakhiv
Institute for Water Resources
US Army Corps of Engineers

Rae Zimmerman
Planning & Public Administration
New York University

10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break

12:00 noon - 1:30 p.m. Lunch

1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Ad hoc Sessions and/or Free Time

5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. Social Hour

6:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Dinner

7:30 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. SESSION II: DAM SAFETY AND RISK OF EXTREME AND CATASTROPHIC EVENTS
Session Chair: David Moser
US Army Corps of Engineers

Risk Based Decision Making for Dam Safety
Jerry Foster, Bob Daniel and Earl Eiker
US Army Corps of Engineers

Dam Safety Evaluation and Decision Making in Australia
David Bowles
Utah State University

Risk-Based Dam Safety Evaluation and Improvements
TBD
BC Hydro

Achieving Public Protection in Dam Safety Decision Making
TBD
US Bureau of Reclamation

The Calculation of the Required Safety-Level of the Afsluitdijk
Alex Roos and F. den Heijer
Ministry of Transport, Public Works & Water Management
Delf Hydraulics

Risk Averse Reliability-Based Optimization of Sea Defences
Pieter van Gelder
J.K. Vrijling
Delft University of Technology

10:00 p.m. - 11:00 p.m. Social Hour

Tuesday, October 14, 1997

7:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. Breakfast Buffet

8:30 a.m. - 12:00 noon SESSION III: NAVIGATION SYSTEMS
Session Chair: S.K. Nanda
US Army Corps of Engineers

Tentative Speakers

TBA
Bob Daniel, Dave Sweeney, Don Sweeney, Mike Krauss

TBA
David Weekly (tentative)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

TBA
Don Sweeney II (tentative)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

TBA
Jeff Marmorstein (tentative)
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break

12:00 noon - 1:30 p.m. Lunch

1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Ad hoc Sessions and/or Free Time

5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. Social Hour

6:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Dinner

7:30 p.m. - 9:30 p.m. SESSION IV: NSF SECOND WORKSHOP ON "WHEN AND HOW CAN YOU SPECIFY A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW MUCH"
Session Chair: Jim Lambert
University of Virginia

Tentative Speakers:

Rae Zimmerman
New York University

Elizabeth Anderson
Sciences International, Inc.

Stan Kaplan
PLG, Inc.

Vicki Bier
University of Wisconsin-Madison

Bob Clemen
Fuqua School of Medicine, Duke University

Bill Rowe
Rowe Research and Engineering Associates

9:30 p.m. - 10:30 p.m. Social Hour

Wednesday, October 15, 1997

7:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. Breakfast Buffet

8:30 a.m. - 12:00 noon SESSION V: FORECASTING IN MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
Session Chair: Eugene Stakhiv
US Army Corps of Engineers

Tentative Speakers:

A Fuzzy Rule Based Model to Link Circulation Patterns, ENSO, and Extreme Precipitation: An Arizona Case Study
Agnes Galambosi, Lucien Duckstein, Erlunga Ozelkan, and Istvan Bogardi

TBA
Charles Yoe
College of Notre Dame of Maryland

10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break

12:00 noon - 1:00 p.m. Lunch

1:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Ad hoc Sessions and/or Free Time

5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. Social Hour

6:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Dinner

7:30 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. SESSION VI: ECOSYSTEM PROTECTION
Session Chair: Eugene Stakhiv
US Army Corps of Engineers

Tentative Speakers:

Uncertainties in Data Model Forecasts and Their Influence on Analysis
Sohail Choudhry
University of Waikato, New Zealand

TBA
Daniel Willard
Indiana University

Wednesday, October 15, 1997

TBA
Bill Hanson
IWR, EcoEasy

TBA
Owen Hoffman
SENES Oak Ridge, Inc.

10:00 p.m. - 11:00 p.m. Social Hour

Thursday, October 16, 1997

7:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. Breakfast Buffet

8:30 a.m. - 12:00 noon SESSION VII: REGULATORY ANALYSIS
Session Chair: Kyle Schilling
US Army Corps of Engineers

Tentative Speakers:

William Farland
Director, US EPA Office of Research and Development

TBA
FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)

Extreme Value Analysis of Waste Water Treatment Plants
Jonathan Bulkley
University of Michigan

TBA
Ron Meekhof
United States Department of Agriculture

TBA
Eugene Stakhiv
US Army Corps of Engineers

10:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m. Coffee Break

12:00 noon - 1:30 p.m. Lunch

1:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Ad hoc Sessions and/or Free Time

5:00 p.m. - 6:00 p.m. Social Hour

6:00 p.m. - 7:30 p.m. Dinner

7:30 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. SESSION VIII: ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS
Session Chair: TBA

Perception of Risk
Robert O'Connor

Extreme Events
Yacov Y. Haimes

TBA
Robert Patev

Risk of Regional Drought Influenced by ENSO
Istvan Bogardi
University of Nebraska
Lucien Duckstein
University of Arizona

10:00 pm - 11:00 pm Social Hour

Friday, October 17, 1997

7:00 a.m. - 8:15 a.m. Breakfast Buffet

8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. Summary of Questionnaire

10:00 a.m. - 10:30 a.m Closing and Adjournment
Boxed Lunches will be available upon prior sign-up

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